The Fox News story on Michael Jackson Manslaughter Investigation

Yesterday, Fox News had a story which sent the JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 and JACKSON.MURDER.DEC10 contract trading into the high 80's and 90's. Very good news for those who have been following this blog and have actually heeded my advice. This story by no means assures that those contracts are going to expire at a 100 but it seems more and more likely that Dr. Conrad Murray is going to be criminally charged with manslaughter.

I have a couple of thoughts on the Fox News story. I have no doubt that they truly have a law enforcement source who told them the information that they published. My only question is who is the source and how truthful is that person? What if that person is lying for God knows what reason? What if that person is just telling Fox News rumors that he is hearing around the office? What if they did it as a way to respond to the video that Dr. Conrad Murray made and released to the public. We don't really know.

The L.A District Attorney has dismissed the story as "completely and totally false." I wouldn't be buying at 90 with the D.A saying something like that.

The source in the Fox News story made two predictions,
1.) That Dr. Conrad Murray will be arrested and charged with Manslaughter within 2 weeks.
2.) That a L.A pharmacy would be searched prior to that arrest.

So we now have a way to see if the source is being truthful. If the 2nd prediction turns out to be true, we should see an expiry very soon. If not, we will have to consider that the source was not accurate and that we basically know exactly what we did before the Fox News story broke.

I am still going long on these contracts but I sold a bunch at 90 because I think it was a little overvalued at the moment and that the price would come down in the coming days. I plan to buy some of those contracts back if the price goes down significantly once the hype from the Fox News story has died down.