Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Virginia Gubernatorial Race

I have taken a small position going long on the VA.GOV2009.REP contract for a price of 62.5. I feel a little lucky because the last time I checked it, the best I could get was 70. Here is why I have I think he will win.





Their is only one poll where the Republican wasn't in the lead and he has since consolidated his lead with many polls saying he might win by double digits.

Here are the amount each have raised. Interestingly, Virginia has no limit on how much one can donate to a candidate. They just have to disclose who is giving the money.

Robert F McDonnell has raised $11,637,867
Creigh Deeds has raised $7,175,020


This election will take place November 3rd, so expiry will be a while from now and I usually don't like to get contracts so far out but I think McDonnell will continue to hold on to his lead and that I might not see the price I got ever again.

5 comments:

  1. Looks like a solid bet to me. You notice the jump in the MJ contracts?

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  2. I just noticed that, first time I have seen it jump into the 60+ range.

    Probably had something to do with this article.
    AP Source: Jackson doc bought anesthetic in Vegas

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  3. Good point. I didn't notice that article as I had already read the same on TMZ yesterday. I wish I had gotten in when you first pointed out that contract, but as it is I'm long for 100 contracts at even money.

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  4. Good wager Chuck. I live in VA and have a LARGE position in Bob from the high 40's. Corzine may pull it out in NJ but Creigh Deeds will not be the next Governor of my Commonwealth.

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  5. Let's not be celebrating so early. I haven't won anything. Either on this or on Michael Jackson. One saying I like to remind myself with is "Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst."

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