Box Office Returns - Weekend 8/14/09-8/16/09

This week we have 5 movies being released with District 9 being the one everyone is betting on. There has been little to no action on The Goods, Bandslam, and Ponyo. District 9 is the one with the big question mark and I have seen predictions all over the place and reviews are coming in overwhelmingly positive. Hype and buzz on the internet seems through the roof but it reminds of much of the same hype for Watchmen.

No doubt, this movie will be better but I don't think the general public is clamoring for this movie like many may think. I am shorting District 9 because tracking has it around $25 Million, the theater count is low around 3,049, and G.I Joe is still out there raking in the big bucks. With all the other movies coming out this weekend, I feel District 9 is not going to be able to do really well at the Box Office.

For Time Traveler's Wife, I think Julie and Julia is going to take some of it's customers but still do relatively well.

Daily Chuck Predictions
District 9: $27.3 Million
Time Traveler's Wife: $18 Million
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard: $7.5 Million
Bandslam: $5 Million
Ponyo: $3 Million

Daily Chuck Intrade Positions
DISTRICT.9.+$25.0M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$27.5M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$30.0M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$32.5M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$35.0M - Short/Sell

TIME.TRAVELER.+$20.0M - Short/Sell
TIME.TRAVELER.+$22.5M - Short/Sell
TIME.TRAVELER.+$25.0M - Short/Sell

Intrade Consensus/Prediction
TIME.TRAVELER.+$15.0M - 75% Probability
TIME.TRAVELER.+$20.0M - 50% Probability
TIME.TRAVELER.+$25.0M - 25% Probability

DISTRICT.9.+$25.0M - 68% Probability
DISTRICT.9.+$30.0M - 59% Probability
DISTRICT.9.+$35.0M - 45% Probability

BANDSLAM.+$7.0M - 40% Probability

THE.GOODS.+$6.0M - 55% Probability
THE.GOODS.+$8.0M - 41% Probability