The House of Representatives
The Republicans continue to stay on track to win 45+ seats in the House of Representatives. Not as many as in 1994 but still a significant amount that would give control of the House back to Republicans. The House looks all but lost for Democrats and the question now seems to be how many seats they will lose?
The Senate
Last week, the election of Christine O’Donnell in Delaware made it look like Republicans had lost their opportunity to also take control of the Senate. However, the states West Virginia, New York, and Connecticut seem to be coming into play and all three were once thought of as safe Democratic seats. In West Virginia, two polls have even come out showing the Republican in the lead. One by PPP [(R) Raese 46% (D) Manchin 43%] and the other by Rasmussen [(R) Raese 48% (D) Manchin 46%]. Wisconsin which was once a toss up has now swung heavily in favor of Republican challenger Ron Johnson who is now trading at 78% on Intrade!
I am now tracking 11 Senate seats which I think are the most competitive. All of these races have the favorite trading at 80% or below on Intrade. These are Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New York (Special Election), Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Currently, I consider there to be 44 relatively safe Democratic seats and 43 relatively safe Republican seats. If Castle decides to make a write in bid for the Delaware Senate seat, I’ll consider it in play. If Democratic Meek doesn’t start making serious gains against Rubio in Florida, I’ll have to consider Florida a Safe Republican seat.
| Intrade Senate Forecast | Democrats | Republicans | Independents |
| Grouped | 49.00 | 48.99 | 2.40 |
| Individual | 49 | 49 | 2 |
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