As you can imagine, Intrade’s prices have changed significantly this past week for the Senate. Christine O’Donnell has significantly hampered the Republican’s chances of taking back the Senate and a write in bid by Sen. Murkowski who was defeated in her Republican primary has now put Alaska in play as well. Traders on Intrade currently are not giving her much of a chance but I have now incorporated her chances of winning into the forecast as well.
The House of Representatives
Republicans continue to have a very good chance of taking over the House and have a better than 50% chance of gaining 45+ Seats. Only 39 are required for them to gain a majority.
Here is the price history for the Republican’s chances of taking over the House.
Here is Intrade’s House Forecast.
The Senate
I have now added Alaska to the Senate Forecast. That makes 12 states which are individually tracked to acquire the information below. Next week, unless Kentucky starts getting interesting, I’m going to take it out and regard it as a Safe Republican seat. Rand Paul has been trading above 80% for over a week now. Other states I have considered taking out include Florida, Delaware, Connecticut and West Virginia.
| Number of Seats | Democrats | Republicans | Independents |
| Grouped | 49.59 | 48.08 | 2.34 |
| Individually | 50 | 48 | 2 |
Intrade Senate Forecast
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