The 5 Most Traded Senate Races on Intrade

With the mid-term elections heating up, the Senate races on Intrade seem to be the only ones getting the attention. Here's the rundown of the 5 Senate races you need to know about if you want to trade successfully this November.

1.) Florida - Intrade Odds:(R) Marco Rubio 50% Vs. (I) Charlie Crist 47.5% Vs.(D) Meek or Greene 6%, Vol 5734

The Florida Senate race started to get interesting when Marco Rubio started seriously challenging Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination. It got really interesting when Crist dropped out of the Republican primary and decided to make an Independent run. The fact that this race is still close shows that it was a pretty smart move on Crist's part to not go after his party's nomination when it was clearly lost. Crist may be poised for a drop in the polls once the Democrats settle on a nominee but until now, he has been handling his Independent candidacy well and has managed to get a large percentage of Democrats on his side. Marco Rubio has recently started to poll ahead of Crist and is once again the odds on favorite, but Crist has proved that he is capable of fighting this to the end. This may be the beginning of the end for Crist and with Crist splitting the Democratic vote, Rubio might finally beat out Crist.

2.) Nevada - Intrade Odds:(D) Sen. Harry Reid 58.7% Vs. (R) Sharron Angle 44%, Vol 5315

The Democratic Senate Majority leader may find himself completely out of job this November facing off against Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle. Both candidates are very polarizing and with so much on the line for the Democrats and the Tea Party, this race is bound to stay heated until election day. Sharon Angle is not your typical Republican candidate but Nevada is not your typical state. Many will doubt whether or not she can pull out this upset and this could make for a prime opportunity for some trades as we get closer to November. Right now, I'll agree with the consensus and say that Harry Reid is in the lead, but watch out for Angle. With a bad election climate for incumbents and Democrats, Angle could come out as the beneficiary.

3.) California - Intrade Odds:(D) Sen. Barbara Boxer 57.3% Vs. (R) Carly Fiorina 43.9%, Vol 1754

Sen. Boxer is facing a tough re-election battle against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. Boxer has built a significant war chest but Fiorina's ability to self fund her campaign if she needs too will help make this a tough battle. Recent polling has both Fiorina and Boxer in the lead with SurveyUSA differing in results from PPP and Rasmussen. Currently, I have a small short against Boxer because I think she is overvalued and has a significant chance of losing this November.

4.) Kentucky - Intrade Odds: (R) Rand Paul 75% Vs. (D) Jack Conway 25%, Vol 1683

Rand Paul, son of Congressman Ron Paul seems to be leading the Tea Party to victory in the Blue Grass state. With the latest polling showing Rand Paul leading by 5% points, his price on Intrade might be a little overvalued. Jack Conway, along with left wing sites such as Talking Points Memo and the Huffington Post have been trying to portray Paul as somebody who holds views outside the interest of Kentucky and mainstream voters. As long as Paul can avoid a serious misstep or scandal, he should be well on his way to becoming a Senator in the new Congress.

5.) Connecticut - Intrade Odds:(D) Richard Blumenthal 74.1% Vs. (R) Linda McMahon 28.5%, Vol 1616

With Chris Dodd retiring, the Democrat Richard Blumenthal is poised to take over. He faces a strong challenge from self funder Linda McMahon who has the money to make this a fight. Blumenthal has gotten some skepticism for exaggerating his military service in Vietnam but has continued to have a comfortable lead in the polls. A recent poll by Rasmussen has him up by 7% points and a Republican victory the odds on Intrade reflect that he is a heavy favorite. A Republican victory in Connecticut seems unlikely and if it did happen, a Republican takeover of the Senate might be the result.