The Colorado Senate Primaries

I'm back and just in time for the Colorado Senate Primaries. Boy, did they get interesting at the last minute. For the Democrats, Sen. Michael Bennet has been trying to hold off a challenge from Andrew Romanoff who according to a poll done by SurveyUSA was leading the race by 3% as of two weeks ago. This led to the price on Intrade for Romanoff to rise to 74%.

For the Republicans, that same SurveyUSA poll also had Ken Buck beating Jane Norton (not surprisingly) by 9% points . But then yesterday, PPP came out with a poll that turned both races on it's head. That poll gave Sen. Bennet a lead of 6% points and Norton a lead of 3% points. Her first lead in the race in many, many, months.

So what happened in Colorado? Why did PPP show the race so differently from SurveyUSA, especially when both are reliable posters? I believe it is due to a number of factors.

1.) Money - Both Jane Norton and Sen. Bennet have raised more money then their respective opponents. A lot more money.

Sen. Bennet has raised $7,704,446 to Andrew Romanoff's $1,962,579. Jane Norton has raised $2,872,274 to Ken Buck's $1,260,043. Now this type of monetary difference may not make a difference among the hardcore party activists, who probably support Romanoff in the Democratic party and Ken Buck the tea party favorite in the Republican party. But it may make a big difference with Getting Out the Vote efforts and advertising for those undecided voters who are more non-nonchalant about voting and politics.

2.) Missteps by both Andrew Romanoff and Ken Buck.

Romanoff has been very negative against Bennet and has tried to paint him as the Washington insider even though he has been in the U.S Senate for less than two years. Some of these negative ads have not been entirely truthful and may have backfired.

Ken Buck has put his foot in his mouth with two statements these last two weeks and it may cost him the election. In one statement Buck said "Why should you vote for me? Because I do not wear high heels, I have cowboy boots. They have real bullsh** on them." And in another he insulted some of the birthers that unfortunately make up a portion of the Tea Party. "will you tell those [expletive] at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera?"

Whatever happens tonight, it will have been a very interesting race and the national media trying to paint these races as simply the establishment candidate vs. outsiders misses the point. All elections have individual characteristics that affect the narrative of the race. It is not just about how voters view the Tea Party and the Obama Presidency.

Daily Chuck Evaluation (As of Right Now)

Democratic Primary
Michael Bennet: 55%-60%
Andrew Romanoff: 40%-45%

Republican Primary
Ken Buck: 50%-55%
Jane Norton: 45%-50%

Disclosure
CO.DEM.SENATE.ROMANOFF - Selling Short - Avg 73.5%
CO.REP.SENATE.BUCK - Selling Short - Avg 65%