In a summer that has continued to underwhelm, this weekend looks like it will continue to do the same. Two movies opening this weekend have a significant chance of breaking +$20 Million. Killers and Get Him to the Greek. Splice might be able to break +$10 Million but Marmaduke seems destined to bomb spectacularly. The only bet I have made this weekend is on Marmaduke not passing $12.5 Million. I have shorted it on Intrade at a price of 50%. Last week I made the mistake of not going with the model and adjusting MacGruber’s estimate upward. The model has constantly had trouble predicting movies under $15 Million so most of my predictions in that range are always kind of iffy. Where Marmaduke ends up at the end of the weekend is honestly a mystery to me. $4.2 Million seems really, really, low but I don’t think it will pass $10 Million. I already put a sizeable bet and there is still some contracts up for the taking at $12.5 Million. If my bankroll was bigger I’d take them, but I don’t like to put so much riding on one movie. Movies are in general extremely unpredictable.
| Movie | Opening Weekend Prediction |
| Killers | $19.34 Million |
| Get Him to the Greek | $18.47 Million |
| Splice | $10.09 Million |
| Marmaduke | $4.20 Million |
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