Usually, Nikki underestimates a little and $85 Million is still possible but looking unlikely. I definitely wouldn't put 38 Bids at a price of 52 like there is on Intrade right now. I reversed my position going long on 85 and 80 Million. I'm just glad I was able to short $100 Million a while ago and was able to hedge my position.
It seems that demand for Harry Potter was really pent up and the people who wanted to watch Harry Potter came rushing at midnight and Opening Day. Hearing that the reviews were good and that the movie appealed to girls more, I expected some of the audience to make a repeat viewing of the movie. I saw many tweets mostly from girls saying they would watch it again or already had. However, that doesn't seem to be the case and Harry Potter might have had better Word of Mouth had it stuck closer to the book. I saw many people complain about the ending and I didn't like it either.
[Update: 10:21AM]
From Box Office Guru's twitter account,"FRI BO: Potter $27M/$79-83M wknd, Ice Age $5.5M/$16-19M, Transformers $4M/$13-14M, Brüno $2.9M/$8-10M, Proposal $2.7M/$8-9M"
From Box Office Guru's twitter account,"FRI BO: Potter $27M/$79-83M wknd, Ice Age $5.5M/$16-19M, Transformers $4M/$13-14M, Brüno $2.9M/$8-10M, Proposal $2.7M/$8-9M"
I am short 6 $75m for 85, and 5 $80 for $80.
ReplyDelete:(
So far, it is tracking to drop worse than Phoenix, but it's also so huge, so who knows...
Well, I thought I was screwed but prices are cheaper than I shorted for now :)
ReplyDeleteHP has no competition this weekend. None. Zero. Basing the tracking on Phoenix will underestimate it, because Phoenix had to deal with Transformers (which had strong legs its second weekend and a large overlap of fans).
ReplyDelete?
ReplyDeleteBut if Phoenix had to deal with Transformers, and still managed just $1M less than Blood Prince on Friday, doesn't that bode badly for Blood Prince? There is also the possibility that Wednesday sapped a ton of actual demand.
I managed to profit on my shorts for $80m. I wanted to get out of $75m not too long ago, but the way it's headed, there is a real chance of it missing $75m, no?
I wouldn't want to short $75 Million at this point, I would much rather go long.
ReplyDeleteWednesday's numbers, Thursday's numbers were better, Friday's numbers were better (probably by only 1.5 million, but still) than Phoenix. I'm not saying it's going to hit 90, but there is little doubt it hits 80.
ReplyDeleteAttendance at movies is also up 10% this year. My guess is it hits 84, with the real possibility of 85. Remember, this movie has great reviews, both from critics as well as users. People who saw it on Wednesday may well see it again, and they'll most certainly tell their friends it was good.
There is really no reason to think that HPOT6 will outperform HPOT5's internal multiplier, especially given the fact that the midnights on Tues were so huge. If you use the HPOT5 IM then HPOT6 project to about $82.5m. Saturday number comes out in an hour I bet...if it's not at least $29.5m then you $85m weekend crowd really have no shot.
ReplyDeleteSession closed? WTF does that mean?
ReplyDeleteI agree that the internal multiplier is a good place to start. Ignoring extrinsic factors is not, however, especially when you're betting on a difference of 3 million dollars, or about 5%. It's simply not dealing with any movie that's going to make over 20 million dollars. For people who sometimes just go to the movies as "something to do" and look to see what's playing, this will be a factor. We'll see I guess.
ReplyDeleteI would LOVE LOVE LOVE to know who the big bidder is on these blockbuster movies. This guy has seriously made me enormous sums of money this summer.
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